Benefits A Preview of Goodies to Come at the Upcoming Master’s of Taste in the Rose Bowl STAFF REPORT Published on Wednesday, February 26, 2020 | 7:44 pm Community News Name (required) Mail (required) (not be published) Website Make a comment Subscribe Get our daily Pasadena newspaper in your email box. Free.Get all the latest Pasadena news, more than 10 fresh stories daily, 7 days a week at 7 a.m. Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * EVENTS & ENTERTAINMENT | FOOD & DRINK | THE ARTS | REAL ESTATE | HOME & GARDEN | WELLNESS | SOCIAL SCENE | GETAWAYS | PARENTS & KIDS More Cool Stuff If you haven’t purchased your tickets yet for Masters of Taste on Sunday, April 5, from 3:00 – 7:00 p.m., on the field of the Rose Bowl, you might want to. Last year it sold out and is likely to again this year. To whet your appetite enjoy a few creations from participating chefs that Pasadena Now got to try in the locker room of the Rose Bowl.Masters of Taste 2020 will take place on Sunday, April 5th, 2020 and is a 21+ event. A VIP Power Hour will be held from 3:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. and General Admission will be from 4:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. Tickets are on sale now. For more information on Masters of Taste 2020, please visit www.MastersofTasteLA.com. Pasadena Will Allow Vaccinated People to Go Without Masks in Most Settings Starting on Tuesday 94 recommendedShareShareTweetSharePin it Pasadena’s ‘626 Day’ Aims to Celebrate City, Boost Local Economy Home of the Week: Unique Pasadena Home Located on Madeline Drive, Pasadena HerbeautyYou Can’t Go Past Our Healthy Quick RecipesHerbeautyHerbeautyHerbeauty6 Trends To Look Like A Bombshell And 6 To Forget AboutHerbeautyHerbeautyHerbeautyThe Most Obvious Sign A Guy Likes You Is When He Does ThisHerbeautyHerbeautyHerbeautyBaby Boom: The Stars Are Getting Busy In QuarantineHerbeautyHerbeautyHerbeautyCostume That Makes Actresses Beneath Practically UnrecognizableHerbeautyHerbeautyHerbeauty8 Easy Exotic Meals Anyone Can MakeHerbeautyHerbeauty faithfernandez More » ShareTweetShare on Google+Pin on PinterestSend with WhatsApp,Virtual Schools PasadenaHomes Solve Community/Gov/Pub SafetyPASADENA EVENTS & ACTIVITIES CALENDARClick here for Movie Showtimes Business News Top of the News First Heatwave Expected Next Week Community News
By Bodie V. PennisiGeorgia ExtensionServiceSpring and summer in Georgia are green and alive with coloroutdoors, but they don’t last. Indoors, though, your garden canbrighten your days year-round with the durable wonders of foliageplants.Blending well with flowering potted plants, foliage plants makewonderful gifts. They add a remarkable variety of leaf sizes,shapes, textures and colors. Combined in dish gardens, smallfoliage plants offer delightful displays as instant miniaturegardens.So many species and cultivars of foliage plants are availablenow. And new ones are introduced every year.Foliage plant breeders have focused on improving plants’appearance and performance indoors. Each year they select plantsfor qualities such as repeat flowering, increased diseaseresistance and tolerance to low light and temperatures. Some showspectacular displays of leaf colors, too.Some winnersHere are some of the exciting, new foliage plants to look for inthe garden center.Aglaonema ‘Red Gold’features green and yellow speckled leaves with verycharacteristic and unusual pink petioles. As with all Chineseevergreens, it can perform excellently indoors.Anthurium ‘Tropic Fire’features bright fiery-red spathe and white spadix. This newcultivar produces a full pot of rich, medium green, shiny foliage.Calathea ‘Silver Plate’features silver-green, glossy foliage, and long-lasting lighterpink flowers. One of the few flowering calatheas in culture.Carludovica ‘Jungle Drums’is a new plant species for the foliage trade. It’s stemless, withrounded, fan-shaped, rich green leaves, usually cut in two parts.They resemble corrugated palm leaves but are much softer. Panamahats are traditionally made of a close relative of this plant.Chlorophytum ‘Fire Flash’has glossy-green, lance-head-shaped leaves with distinct,parallel veins and a bright coral petiole. The coral veins andpetioles make a strong contrast with the leaves, while the smallflowers are white in a dense, cylindric panicle partly hidden inthe foliage. This plant is a close relative of the spider plant(Chlorophytum comosum) but has much larger leaves.Dracaena ‘Rikki’ hasfoliage that produces graceful arcs of deep green, glossy leaves,with highlighted yellow bands in the center running the length ofthe leaf. It is a wonderful companion to all other dracaenas anddoes a credit to this genus of old favorites.Homalomena ‘Purple Sword’has spectacularly colored dark green and silver-marked leaveswith contrasting dark purple on the undersides.Polypodium ‘Green Wave’ hasdistinctive upright, dark green fronds. This new tropical ferngrows as vigorously as a Boston fern.Spathiphyllum ‘Hi HoSilver’ is a variant of “Ceres,” the European variety thatblooms with a symmetrical shape. The leaf veins are lighter,compared to the rest of the lamina, giving the leaf a unique lookof a subtle white web on a green background. This beautiful newcultivar resembles a gray-green Aglaonema.Syngonium podophyllum’Neon’ has bright, new hot-pink foliage. This small plantbranches freely and is perfect in large assortments or dishgardens.(Bodie Pennisi is a Cooperative Extension horticulturist withthe University of Georgia College of Agricultural andEnvironmental Sciences.)
The 21-year-old is one of the most sought-after players in the Championship after making his name as a goalscoring midfielder at Bloomfield Road. Cardiff are looking to strengthen their squad after promotion to the Barclays Premier League, but Paul Ince reckons it is only “50-50” his son will move on. “Cardiff have come in massively for Thomas, the chairman’s accepted the offer,” he said in an interview with Blackpool’s official Youtube channel. “I’m not sure what the offer is because I’ve been away, but that’s been accepted, so it’s a case of when he comes back next week, Thomas, we’ll sit down and see what he wants to do.” Blackpool have been on warm weather training in Portugal, but Thomas Ince was given extra time off because of his involvement with England Under-21s and is not due back at the club until a week on Monday. Paul Ince added: “He loves it here. He said to me, ‘I’m in no rush to get to the Premiership, I’m in no rush to leave Blackpool. “I think it’s 50-50 at the moment. It’s a tricky one for me because obviously you want your son to be playing in the Premiership, but you obviously want your son to be playing with you. “I feel as far as improvement there’s still a long way for Thomas to go and will he get that if he went to the Premiership? I’m not too sure. I know what he needs because he’s grown up with me. Another year wouldn’t hurt him at Blackpool.” Press Association Blackpool have accepted a bid from Cardiff for Thomas Ince, according to manager Paul Ince.
NEW DELHI, India (CMC) – Factions of the Indian Cricket Board (BCCI) want pressure brought to bear on the West Indies Cricket Board (WICB) for its lack of support in the recent vote regarding the International Cricket Council’s new governance structure and revenue-sharing model.At an ICC Board meeting in Dubai last month, the BCCI found itself standing alone as nine other countries voted in support of the governance structure. On the contentious revenue-sharing model, India found support only from the Sri Lankan Board, as they lost 8-2 on vote.Sections of the BCCI now want joint secretary Amitabh Chaudhary to speak to WICB president Dave Cameron about the recent ICC votes, as there is a belief the Caribbean board was not held accountable enough for the decision of the one-day side to abruptly abandon the tour here three years ago.“We let the West Indies Cricket Board go scot-free back in 2014 after they pulled out midway,” a senior BCCI official, who requested anonymity, told the Press Trust of India.“We claimed damages of US$42M but that was also waived by Shashank Manohar after he became the BCCI president for the second time. Now they (WICB) have also voted against us at ICC Board. We need to look at these aspects.”The BCCI suspended bilateral ties with West Indies and also lodged the multi-million dollar claim against the WICB back in November, 2014, after the team walked off the tour earlier the same month following the fourth ODI, stemming from a players’ pay dispute with the board.However, the matter was settled amicably following talks between the WICB and the new Manohar-led BCCI, with the entities agreeing future bilateral tours.In fact, only yesterday, the BCCI confirmed India’s six-match limited tour of the Caribbean starting next month, but the senior BCCI official said the only entity benefiting from the arrangement was the WICB.“There has to be some discussions with Cameron and WICB as to what their viewpoint is on governance,” the official continued.“In any case, it’s the WICB which gains if we go (on the tour). Before the ICC Annual Conference, it would be great if Amitabh speaks to their cricket board.”India toured the Caribbean last year for four Tests and also played West Indies in a two-match Twenty20 series in Florida.
Australian Men’s Open player, Scott Buckley tells www.austouch.com.au about his day on tour on Thursday, which involved kids clinics, training, some Frisbee Golf and the Australian Jersey Presentation on the eve of the 2014 Trans Tasman Series which starts today in Mudgee. The day started off as usual being woken up earlier than expected by my human alarm clock or roommate Tim Good (when he’s up everyone’s up apparently). We were off to get some breakfast then time to get ready for some local coaching clinics. The bus trip started off with the usual pre-bus Instagram photo and we split ourselves into five groups, the teachers (Steve, Robbie, Pete, myself) and Topey, the king of clinics, took the lead of each group and had two teammates with each of us. As we got there each leader was given a drill that we were to do with each group. These drills allowed us to engage with each group to get to know them and vice versa. The groups were made of boys and girls between the ages of eight and 16 as well as a special needs group. Throughout the course of the clinics I don’t know who had more fun, the kids or us. It’s very pleasing to see the positive affect that each person has with the kids participating and then the effect that they return have on us. Once each group rotated through it was then time for some autographs to be signed, with the usual Goody stitch up, every kid was informed of the typo that Steve Roberts caps and age had been mixed up. This was then complete and we were back off to get some lunch and then the much anticipated second leg of Frisbee Golf during our down time.After yesterday’s victory to Prowse and Ranga many of the boys were after some revenge. Prowse had a new partner in Tim Good, Ranga decided to skip the event to chill with a few of the other boys. Once again after nine holes and Prowse’s unorthodox but very effective technique he and Tim cleaned up and took it out with the three remaining teams being on even score. We were then off to training to fine tune a few things before tomorrow’s test match. It was just a light hour session however the feel and vibe around the whole group was very positive and upbeat. Our team is still hurting from last year’s Trans Tasman loss and is eager to put that trophy back in our cabinet and it was evident in the way that we trained. Soon after our return from the package we were in the showers and preparing for the jersey presentation dinner.Just before our Presentation dinner Trady asked that all the boys meet in Wayne Grant’s room. Steve gave us a story of sacrifice from a Victorian Cross recipient and this was followed by a video Trady had put together of our short history from 2010 – 2014. It had ups, downs, glory, defeat and many fond memories of previous tours to remember the journey of our team. From here we made our way to dinner.This is the first time that TFA had incorporated the jersey dinner with family and friends and it was good to see so many of these out in force to support the Australian contingent. Dinner was served, followed by the Mixed receiving their jerseys, then the Women’s and finally the Men’s. No matter if it’s your first test, your 10th of 30th it’s a very special moment to be presented with your Australian Jersey. Once all teams had received their jerseys it was time for the Flag Bearers to be announced. Kristin Boss from the Women’s, Matt Tope from the Men’s and Steve Cunningham from the support staff were all given the honour to carry the flag; all of whom are very deserving recipients of this. It was a busy day but what was taken from this day is something I will never forget, the smiles on the kid’s faces, as well as that of your team mates, the honour of receiving your jersey and what it means to represent your country. The day is done and after a goodnight sleep we’re less than 12 hours away from kick off, I can’t wait!!Keep up-to-date with all of the latest news and information from the 2014 Trans Tasman Series: Website – www.touchfootball.com.au Facebook – www.facebook.com/touchfootballaustralia Twitter – www.twitter.com/touchfootyaus (#transtasman2014) Instagram – www.instagram.com/touchfootballaustralia YouTube – www.youtube.com/touchfootballaus Related LinksTrans Tasman Diary
Chiefs and elected council members from several B.C. First Nations including the Haida, Gitxsan and Babine Lake, stepped up to share their support and stories of resistance against industry.Wayne Christian of the Secwepemc nation told the crowd that “legislative genocide” had been waged against Indigenous peoples for generations.Harvey Humchitt, a hereditary chief with the Heiltsuk First Nation in Bella Bella, where a barge ran aground spilling oil into the waters, said it only takes one incident to cause devastation. SMITHERS, B.C. – A Wet’suwet’en hereditary chief told a crowd of First Nation leaders gathered in Smithers, B.C., that no elected band council or Crown authority has jurisdiction over the land.Chief Na’Moks says the rights of the hereditary chiefs to the land have never been extinguished.He says the agreements signed by pipeline builder Coastal GasLink are illegitimate and the support shown by those gathered, and by many people around the world, proves the Wet’suwet’en hereditary leaders do not stand alone.
New Delhi: Lasith Malinga is likely to be available for the next two IPL matches for Mumbai Indians after Sri Lanka Cricket (SLC) softened its stance on the participation of the veteran pacer in a domestic ODI tournament. SLC had earlier announced that only those players would be eligible for selection in the World Cup squad, who would compete in Super Provincial One-Day domestic tournament, slated from April 4 to 11. The diktat had forced Malinga to make himself unavailable for Mumbai Indians’ first six matches. Also Read – Puducherry on top after 8-wkt win over ChandigarhHowever, according to a report in ESPNcricinfo, the SLC has changed its stance after a few calls by BCCI. SLC Chief selector Ashantha de Mel said that Malinga’s place in the World Cup bound squad is guaranteed, so he is free to participate in the IPL. “We have no issues if he goes to IPL – the board had given him a no-objection certificate already, so he’s free to go. Anyway he has been one of our best bowlers in one dayers, so there’s no question about his place in the team,” Mel said. Also Read – Vijender’s next fight on Nov 22, opponent to be announced later”Anyway he has been one of our best bowlers in one dayers, so there’s no question about his place in the team,” Mel added. The news of Malinga’s participation will boost Mumbai Indians’ confidence as they aim to register their first win of the tournament after losing to Delhi Capitals on Sunday. The three-time winners will lock horns with Royal Challengers Bangalore and Kings XI Punjab in back-to-back away games on March 28 and 30 respectively.
Casablanca – Princess Lalla Salma, Chairwoman of the Lalla Salma Foundation of Cancer Prevention and Treatment, inaugurated on Tuesday the adult hematology and oncology unit for the treatment of blood cancers, at “20 August 1953” hospital of Ibn Rushd university hospital center in Casablanca.Princess Lalla Salma visited the protected unit which includes offices of the head nurse and the doctor, a patient care room, a pharmacy, protected area I (12 rooms), a visitors area, and protected area II (6 rooms).This service is responsible for the specialized care for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) as well as the training of specialists and researchers in this field. It is part of a partnership agreement between the Lalla Salma Foundation, the Regional Council of Casablanca, the Prefectural Council, the city council, the National Initiative for Human Development (INDH), the Ministry of Health, and Ibn Rushd University Hospital Center. AML is rare in children. It constitutes 80–85% of acute leukemia in adults, and its incidence increases with age. There are about 1,500 new cases in Morocco. Due to its specificity, treating AML should take place in specialized hematology units by skilled clinical hematologists and qualified nurses. The treatment of these patients should be in special facilities with “clean” rooms, endowed by a technical platform of biological hematology, microbiology and mycology. The first of its kind in Morocco, the protected 18-bed unit provides “clean” beds which lower the risk of infections thanks to air treatment designed to protect fragile senior patients.The 10-million dirham unit will accommodate up to 400 new cases per year, improve treatment outcomes to reduce early infection-related mortality.
ReferencesPro-Football-Reference.comAutocorrelation / Elo rating / Monte Carlo simulations / Regression to the mean / ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating Multiply all of those factors together, and you have the total number of Elo points that should shift from the loser to the winner in a given game. (Elo is a closed system where every point gained by one team is a point lost by another.) Put another way: A team’s postgame Elo is simply its pregame Elo plus or minus the Elo shift implied by the game’s result — and in turn, that postgame Elo becomes the pregame Elo for a team’s next matchup. Circle of life.We also adjust each starting quarterback’s rating based on his performance in the game, adjusting for the quality of the opposing defense. (Read on for more details about how that process works.)Elo does have its limitations. Aside from changes at quarterback, it doesn’t know about trades or injuries that happen midseason, so it can’t adjust its ratings in real time for the absence of an important non-QB player. Over time, it will theoretically detect such a change when a team’s performance drops because of the injury, but Elo is always playing catch-up in that department. Normally, any time you see a major disparity between Elo’s predicted spread and the Vegas line for a game, it will be because Elo has no means of adjusting for key changes to a roster and the bookmakers do. (But this should be much less frequent after the addition of our QB adjustments, since oddsmakers don’t tend to shift lines much — or at all — in response to changes at non-QB positions.)The quarterback adjustmentNew for 2019, we added a way to account for changes in performance — and personnel — at quarterback, the game’s most important position. Here’s how it works:Both teams and individual quarterbacks have rolling ratings based on their recent performance.Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression between ESPN’s Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses.The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3For seasons before game-level sack logs are complete (pre-1981), the sack term is zeroed out.This metric is also adjusted for opposing defensive quality by computing a rolling rating for team QB VALUE allowed, subtracting league average from the VALUE an opponent usually gives up per game, and using that to adjust a QB’s performance for the game in question. So for example, if a team usually gives up a VALUE 5 points higher than the average team, we would adjust an individual QB’s performance downward by 5 points of VALUE to account for the easier opposing defense. You can track these quarterback ratings on a team-by-team and division-by-division basis using this interactive page, which shows the relative quality of every QB in the league. The average team QB VALUE rating going into the 2019 season was about 49.5 (or about 163 Elo points), a leaguewide number that has increased substantially over the history of the NFL as passing has become more prevalent and efficient. So a rolling rating that would have made a QB one of the best in football in the 1990s would rank as only average now, even though the zero-point in our ratings remains the replacement-level performance of an undrafted rookie starter.One last note on these ratings involves how they are set initially. We’ll explain preseason team Elo ratings below, but here is how preseason ratings are set for the quarterback adjustment:Before a season, each starting quarterback is assigned a preseason rating based on either his previous performance or his draft position (in the case of rookies making their debut start).For veterans with between 10 and 100 career starts, we take their final rating from the end of the previous season and revert it toward the rating of the average NFL QB start by one-fourth before the following season.For players with fewer than 10 or more than 100 starts, we don’t revert their ratings at all.For rookies making their starting debuts, we assign them initial ratings based on draft position. An undrafted rookie is always assigned a rating of zero for his first start. The first overall pick, by comparison, gets a rating of +113 Elo points before his first start. The quarterback Elo adjustment is applied before each game by comparing the starting QB’s rolling VALUE rating with the team’s rolling rating and multiplying by 3.3.For example: when Aaron Rodgers was injured midway through the 2017 season, he had a rolling VALUE rating of 66. The Green Bay Packers’ team rolling VALUE rating was 68, and backup Brett Hundley had a personal rating of 14. So when adjusting the Packers’ Elo for their next game with Hundley starting instead of Rodgers, we would have applied an adjustment of 3.3 * (14 – 68) = -1764After rounding. to Green Bay’s base Elo rating of 1586 heading into its Week 7 game against the Saints. This effectively would have left the Packers as a 1409 Elo team with Hundley under center (before applying adjustments for home field, travel and rest), dropping Green Bay’s win probability from 63 percent to 39 percent for the game despite playing at home. In cases like these, the QB adjustment can have a massive effect! Model CreatorsNate Silver The founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. | @natesilver538Jay Boice A computational journalist for FiveThirtyEight. | @jayboiceNeil Paine A senior sportswriter for FiveThirtyEight. | @Neil_Paine The DetailsFiveThirtyEight has an admitted fondness for the Elo rating — a simple system that judges teams or players based on head-to-head results — and we’ve used it to rate competitors in basketball, baseball, tennis and various other sports over the years. The sport we cut our teeth on, though, was professional football. Way back in 2014, we developed our NFL Elo ratings to forecast the outcome of every game. The nuts and bolts of that system are described below.Game predictionsIn essence, Elo assigns every team a power rating (the NFL average is around 1500). Those ratings are then used to generate win probabilities for games, based on the difference in quality between the two teams involved, plus adjustments for changes at starting quarterback, the location of the matchup (including travel distance) and any extra rest days either team had coming into the contest. After the game, each team’s rating changes based on the result, in relation to how unexpected the outcome was and the winning margin. This process is repeated for every game, from kickoff in September until the Super Bowl.For any game between two teams (A and B) with certain pregame Elo ratings, the odds of Team A winning are:Pr(A)=110−EloDiff400+1Pr(A)=110−EloDiff400+1ELODIFF is Team A’s rating minus Team B’s rating, plus or minus the difference in several adjustments:A home-field adjustment of 55 points at base, depending on who was at home, plus 4 points of Elo for every 1,000 miles traveled. This means the Giants get a 55-point Elo bonus when “hosting” the Jets (despite both teams calling MetLife Stadium home), while the Patriots would get a 65-point Elo bonus when, say, the Chargers come to visit. There is no base home-field adjustment for neutral-site games such as the Super Bowl1Unless a team somehow makes the Super Bowl in its host year. or international games, although the travel-distance adjustment is included for the Super Bowl.A rest adjustment of 25 Elo points whenever a team is coming off of a bye week (including when top-seeded teams don’t play during the opening week of the playoffs). Our research shows that teams in these situations play better than would be expected from their standard Elo alone, even after controlling for home-field effects.A playoff adjustment that multiplies ELODIFF by 1.2 before computing the expected win probabilities and point spreads for playoff games. We found that, in the NFL playoffs, favorites tend to outplay underdogs by a wider margin than we’d expect from their regular-season ratings alone.A quarterback adjustment that assigns every team and each individual QB a rolling performance rating, which can be used to adjust a team’s “effective” Elo upward or downward in the event of a major injury or other QB change. (See below for more details about how this adjustment works.)We also tested effects for weather and coaches (including both head coaches and coordinators) but found that neither improved the predictive value of our model in backtesting by enough to warrant inclusion.Fun fact: If you want to compare Elo’s predictions with point spreads like the Vegas line, you can also divide ELODIFF by 25 to get the spread for the game. Just be sure to include all of the many adjustments above to get the most accurate predicted line.Once the game is over, the pregame ratings are adjusted up (for the winning team) and down (for the loser). We do this using a combination of factors:The K-factor. All Elo systems come with a special multiplier called K that regulates how quickly the ratings change in response to new information. A high K-factor tells Elo to be very sensitive to recent results, causing the ratings to jump around a lot based on each game’s outcome; a low K-factor makes Elo slow to change its opinion about teams, since every game carries comparatively little weight. In our NFL research, we found that the ideal K-factor for predicting future games is 20 — large enough that new results carry weight, but not so large that the ratings bounce around each week.The forecast delta. This is the difference between the binary result of the game (1 for a win, 0 for a loss, 0.5 for a tie) and the pregame win probability as predicted by Elo. Since Elo is fundamentally a system that adjusts its prior assumptions based on new information, the larger the gap between what actually happened and what it had predicted going into a game, the more it shifts each team’s pregame rating in response. Truly shocking outcomes are like a wake-up call for Elo: They indicate that its pregame expectations were probably quite wrong and thus in need of serious updating.The margin-of-victory multiplier. The two factors above would be sufficient if we were judging teams based only on wins and losses (and, yes, Donovan McNabb, sometimes ties). But we also want to be able to take into account how a team won — whether they dominated their opponents or simply squeaked past them. To that end, we created a multiplier that gives teams (ever-diminishing) credit for blowout wins by taking the natural logarithm of their point differential plus 1 point.MovMultiplier=ln(WinnerPointDiff+1)×2.2WinnerEloDiff×0.001+2.2MovMultiplier=ln(WinnerPointDiff+1)×2.2WinnerEloDiff×0.001+2.2This factor also carries an additional adjustment for autocorrelation, which is the bane of all Elo systems that try to adjust for scoring margin. Technically speaking, autocorrelation is the tendency of a time series to be correlated with its past and future values. In football terms, that means the Elo ratings of good teams run the risk of being inflated because favorites not only win more often, but they also tend to put up larger margins in their wins than underdogs do in theirs. Since Elo gives more credit for larger wins, this means that top-rated teams could see their ratings swell disproportionately over time without an adjustment. To combat this, we scale down the margin-of-victory multiplier for teams that were bigger favorites going into the game.2Special note: In the case of a tie, the multiplier becomes 1.525, or 2.2 times the natural log of 2 (which, based on the formula above, effectively assumes the absolute margin of victory in any game must be at least 1). For individual QBs, the rolling rating is updated every 10 games. (i.e., Rating_new = 0.9 * Rating_old + 0.1 * Game_VALUE ).For teams, the rolling rating is updated every 20 games.This implies that short-term “hot” and “cold” streaks by individual QBs have predictive value, which can trigger a nonzero pregame QB adjustment even when a team has had the same starter for each of its previous 20 games. Preseason QB ratings are also assigned at the team level. These consist of one-third weight given to the team’s previous end-of-season rolling QB rating and two-thirds weight given to the preseason rolling rating of the team’s projected top starter.Pregame and preseason ratingsSo all of that is how Elo works at the game-by-game level and what goes into our quarterback adjustments. But where do teams’ preseason ratings come from, anyway?We use two sources to set teams’ initial ratings going into a season:At the start of each season, every existing team carries its Elo rating over from the end of the previous season, except that it is reverted one-third of the way toward a mean of 1505. That is our way of hedging for the offseason’s carousel of draft picks, free agency, trades and coaching changes. We don’t currently have any way to adjust for a team’s actual offseason moves, aside from changes at quarterback, but a heavy dose of regression to the mean is the next-best thing, since the NFL has built-in mechanisms (like the salary cap) that promote parity, dragging bad teams upward and knocking good ones down a peg or two.For seasons since 1990, we also use Vegas win totals to help set preseason Elo ratings, converting over-under expected wins to an Elo scale. (This addition to the model helped significantly improve predictive accuracy in backtesting, by a little more than half the improvement that adding the QB adjustment did.) As a side note, this is partly why we mix the projected startIng QB’s rolling rating into the preseason team QB rating — we assume that changes at quarterback are “baked into” Vegas over/unders and must be adjusted for to avoid double-counting the improvement added by an upgrade at QB.These two factors are combined, with one-third weight given to regressed Elo and two-thirds weight given to Vegas-wins Elo. This blend is what forms a team’s preseason Elo rating.Note that I mentioned “existing” teams when mentioning end-of-season ratings from the previous year. Expansion teams have their own set of rules. For newly founded clubs in the modern era, we assign them a rating of 1300 — which is effectively the Elo level at which NFL expansion teams have played since the 1970 AFL merger. We also assigned that number to new AFL teams in 1960, letting the ratings play out from scratch as the AFL operated in parallel with the NFL. When the AFL’s teams merged into the NFL, they retained the ratings they’d built up while playing separately.For new teams in the early days of the NFL, things are a little more complicated. When the NFL began in 1920 as the “American Professional Football Association” (they renamed it “National Football League” in 1922), it was a hodgepodge of independent pro teams from existing leagues and opponents that in some cases were not even APFA members. For teams that had not previously played in a pro league, we assigned them a 1300 rating; for existing teams, we mixed that 1300 mark with a rating that gave them credit for the number of years they’d logged since first being founded as a pro team.InitRating=1300×23YrsSince1stSeason+1505×(1−23)YrsSince1stSeasonInitRating=1300×23YrsSince1stSeason+1505×(1−23)YrsSince1stSeasonThis adjustment applied to 28 franchises during the 1920s, plus the Detroit Lions (who joined the NFL in 1930 after being founded as a pro team in 1929) and the Cleveland Rams (who joined in 1937 after playing a season in the second AFL). No team has required this exact adjustment since, although we also use a version of it for historical teams that discontinued operations for a period of time.Not that there haven’t been plenty of other odd situations to account for. During World War II, the Chicago Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers briefly merged into a common team that was known as “Card-Pitt,” and before that, the Steelers had merged with the Philadelphia Eagles to create the delightfully monikered “Steagles.” In those cases, we took the average of the two teams’ ratings from the end of the previous season and performed our year-to-year mean reversion on that number to generate a preseason Elo rating. After the mash-up ended and the teams were re-divided, the Steelers and Cardinals (or Eagles) received the same mean-reverted preseason rating implied by their combined performance the season before.And I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens. Technically, the NFL considers the current Browns to be a continuation of the franchise that began under Paul Brown in the mid-1940s. But that team’s roster was essentially transferred to the Ravens for their inaugural season in 1996, while the “New Browns” were stocked through an expansion draft in 1999. Because of this, we decided the 1996 Ravens’ preseason Elo should be the 1995 Browns’ end-of-year Elo, with the cross-season mean-reversion technique applied, and that the 1999 Browns’ initial Elo should be 1300, the same as any other expansion team.Season simulationsNow that we know where a team and quarterback’s initial ratings for a season come from and how those ratings update as the schedule plays out, the final piece of our Elo puzzle is how all of that fits in with our NFL interactive graphic, which predicts the entire season.At any point in the season, the interactive lists each team’s up-to-date Elo rating (as well as how that rating has changed over the past week and how any changes at QB alter the team’s effective Elo), plus the team’s expected full-season record and its odds of winning its division, making the playoffs and even winning the Super Bowl. This is all based on a set of simulations that play out the rest of the schedule using Elo to predict each game.Specifically, we simulate the remainder of the season 100,000 times using the Monte Carlo method, tracking how often each simulated universe yields a given outcome for each team. It’s important to note that we run these simulations “hot” — that is, a team’s Elo rating is not set in stone throughout the simulation but changes after each simulated game based on its result, which is then used to simulate the next game, and so forth. This allows us to better capture the possible variation in how a team’s season can play out, realistically modeling the hot and cold streaks that a team can go on over the course of a season.Our simulations also project which quarterback will start each game by incorporating injuries, suspensions and starters being rested. For example, we might know that a quarterback is out for Weeks 1 and 2 but back for certain in Week 3. Or our forecast might have some uncertainty around a quarterback’s injury and project that he has only a 10 percent chance of playing next week but a 50 percent chance of playing the following week, and so on. In cases where we don’t know for sure which quarterback will start a game, the team’s quarterback adjustment is a weighted average of the possible starting quarterback adjustments.Late in the season, you will find that the interactive allows you to experiment with different postseason contingencies based on who you have selected to win a given game. This is done by drilling down to just the simulated universes in which the outcomes you chose happened and seeing how those universes ultimately played out. It’s a handy way of seeing exactly what your favorite team needs to get a favorable playoff scenario or just to study the ripple effects each game may have on the rest of the league.The complete history of the NFLIn conjunction with our Elo interactive, we also have a separate dashboard showing how every team’s Elo rating has risen or fallen throughout history. These charts will help you track when your team was at its best — or worst — along with its ebbs and flows in performance over time. The data in the charts goes back to 1920 (when applicable) and is updated with every game of the current season.An important disclaimer: The historical interactive ratings will differ from the ratings found in our current-season prediction interactive because the historical ratings do not contain our quarterback adjustments. (If you’re interested in looking at the historical QB adjustment data, it’s available on our data homepage.) The rolling rating represents the VALUE we’d expect a quarterback (whether at the individual or team level) to produce against a passing defense of average quality in the next start. To convert between VALUE and Elo, the rolling rating can be multiplied by 3.3 to get the number of Elo points a QB is expected to be worth compared with an undrafted rookie replacement. Version History2.0Quarterback adjustments are added, along with special adjustments for travel distance, bye weeks and playoff rating spreads.Sept. 4, 20191.1Ratings are extended back to 1920, with a new rating procedure for expansion teams and other special cases. Seasonal mean-reversion is set to 1505, not 1500.Sept. 10, 20151.0Elo ratings are introduced for the current season; underlying historical numbers go back to 1970.Sept. 4, 2014 Related ArticlesThe Complete History Of The NFLMay 1, 2018Introducing NFL Elo RatingsSept. 4, 2014The Best NFL Teams Of All Time, According To EloSept. 18, 2015Did The Packers Squander Aaron Rodgers?Dec. 5, 2018The Browns Are A Hot Super Bowl Pick For 2019. (Wait, What?)July 15, 2019
None of this isn’t to say that Phelps can’t surprise his doubters in 2016. But the age and steady progress of other swimmers will be working against him should he compete in Rio. Michael Phelps, the most decorated Olympian in history, announced this week that he was returning to competitive swimming. Phelps had retired following a six-medal performance at the 2012 Summer Olympics in London. Phelps and his coach, Bob Bowman, aren’t saying whether he’s gearing up for another run at the Olympics, but it’s hard not to speculate about one of the best athletes ever returning to competition. (Remember the hype surrounding a 38-year-old Michael Jordan’s return to basketball?)I’m not here to speculate about whether Phelps will make it to Rio de Janeiro in 2016. But if he represents the United States for a fifth time — he would be 31 — how might he perform?Putting aside conditioning concerns — Phelps only swam occasionally in the year following his retirement, though he is reportedly now working out with Bowman five days a week — the specter of age looms large. Thirty-one is ancient for an Olympic swimmer. Since 1968, only 17 athletes 31 and older have participated in any of the individual events Phelps would probably attempt (100- and 200-meter butterfly; 200-meter freestyle; and 200- and 400-meter individual medley). The average age of medalists in those events was 21.4.Of course, Phelps isn’t the typical Olympic swimmer. At his peak, the 2008 Games, he set the world record in four of the five individual events (he had to settle for just an Olympic record in the 100-meter butterfly; he broke the world record in that event in 2009). So, in 2016, Phelps might be a shadow of his former self, but even a diminished version of history’s best swimmer could be a force to be reckoned with.In the 2012 Olympics, Phelps took individual gold medals in the 100-meter butterfly and the 200-meter medley, and also grabbed silver in the 200-meter butterfly. If we look at how swimmers in those events tend to age, perhaps we can get an idea of whether Phelps is likely to be competitive if he takes to the water in 2016. Unfortunately, the data is sparse on competitors in their 30s, but here’s how the average male swimmer who participated in back-to-back Games tends to see his times change from one Olympics to the next (since 1968, with a minimum sample of four swimmers in each age group): In each graph, the trend is unsurprising: Swimmers get progressively worse with age. If Phelps follows the same paths, he could expect to post average times of 52.2 seconds in the 100-meter butterfly (which wouldn’t have gotten him out of the semifinals in London), 1:57.4 in the 200-meter butterfly (which would have missed qualifying out of Round 1 in 2012), and 1:58.1 in the 200-meter individual medley (which would have qualified for the final, but not earned a medal, in London). Obviously, there’s plenty of uncertainty around those extrapolations, but they give us a sense of how age may affect Phelps — even if he’s prepared and in shape for Rio.There’s one other factor working against Phelps: The rest of the field is getting faster. The average time for a finalist and a gold medalist has steadily decreased in each of Phelps’s best events since 1968: